Job Growth Expected to Slow Sharply Over The Next Decade, Labor Department Says

KEY POINTS

  • From the period of 2020-29, the economy is expected to add a net 6 million new jobs, an annual growth rate of just 0.4%, the Labor Department said.
  • Health care is expected to show the biggest gains while manufacturing is projected to take the biggest losses.
  • That estimate compares with the 1.3% annual rate during the 2009-19 period.

The speed of job gains over the next years will slow significantly amid a sharp decrease in the active labor force and an aging population, according to Labor Department projections launched Tuesday.

From the duration of 2020-29, the economy is anticipated to add a net 6 million brand-new tasks, an annual growth rate of simply 0.4%, the Bureau of Labor Data approximates.

That compares to the 1.3% annual rate throughout the 2009-19 duration, which got a boost from the Great Recession healing that began in mid-2009 and ended up being the longest growth in U.S. history prior to it ended in February of this year.

The sluggish growth rate also does not include the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, which cost the economy more than 25 million jobs initially before workers were reminded work as limitations reduced to fight Covid-19. Some 16.3 million workers stayed unemployed as of July, almost 11 million more than the pre-pandemic level, according to the Labor Department.

The department kept in mind that the infection might trigger “new structural modifications to the economy” and will be represented in future projections.

Beyond the pandemic, task development is anticipated to slow amid group changes and a sharp increase in performance induced in part by technological changes.

Task gains are anticipated to be focused on healthcare, which occupies 5 of the leading 20 sectors expected to see the fastest growth. The department projects health-care assistance professions to include nearly 1.6 million positions through 2029, a 22.6% boost. Cooking and serving professions are anticipated to increase by 1 million, though that could change due to the effect the market has felt from coronavirus restrictions.

Experts, companies, and scientific service fields also are anticipated to gain in the middle of tech developments. Community and social service are expected to see a 12.5% boost in tasks, while computer systems and mathematical occupations are anticipated for a 12.1% increase.

Production deals with the toughest prospects, with a predicted decrease of 448,800 tasks due to “the loss of manufacturing jobs include the adoption of new productivity-enhancing technologies, such as robotics and worldwide competition.”

Under the most current forecasts, the workforce participation rate is projected to topple from 63.1% in 2019 to 61.2% in 2029. Outside of the pandemic era, where employees were deliberately secured of the labor force to slow the virus spread, the last time involvement was that low remained in late 1975.

At the same time, productivity is anticipated to increase from 1.1% in the previous years to 1.8%, a reflection of “the outlook for company investment and effectiveness gains anticipated in using labor and capital inputs.”

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